Choose Your Miracle-Free Future With No Regrets

Great choices are often on the losing side of miraculous moments.

November 23, 1984; Miami, Florida.

It was the Friday after Thanksgiving and the Boston College Eagles are in town to play the defending national champion Miami Hurricanes. Despite being ranked higher at 10th in the country compared to Miami's 12th, Miami is favored by six points. The teams are both led by legendary quarterbacks—Doug Flutie leads the Eagles while Bernie Kosar is at the helm for the Hurricanes.

Suppose for the sake of argument that you are a ten-year-old college football fan who is in the unique position of choosing who to root for in this game—without knowing the future, of course. Besides choosing the team for this particular game, suppose further that the choice you make will in turn be the team you will root for for the rest of your life. A hefty decision indeed even if your ten-year-old self cannot fully appreciate it.

Perhaps some analysis is due. Up until this point during your short lifetime, Miami has managed to win just 55% of its football games, but they did win an improbable national championship in the past year. Boston College on the other hand has won about 58% of its football games.

To a novice onlooker it is a bit unclear which team has the better prospects to be a championship football program going forward. Yet an astute analyst probably could divine that Miami's prospects are quite a bit greater.

Miami is coached by a first year up and comer in Jimmy Johnson. Boston College is coached by Jack Bicknell—a rather nondescript leader. Miami is already earning a reputation as a program that is willing to do what it takes to win with it’s sights set on future success. After all, they did just break into the elite ranks in defeating blueblood Nebraska in last year’s Orange Bowl. To say Boston College does not give off the same vibe is an understatement.

Importantly Miami is located in a very favorable location. Obviously the weather is great in south Florida, but equally important is the fact that Miami is very close to the growing hot bed of high school talent in the southeastern part of the United States.

Perhaps your father, who is an astute student of college football, can give some guidance. He advises that you choose Miami as the team to call your own. You take his advice.

At first, it seems you have chosen wisely as Miami jumps out to a 14-0 lead. But even knowing that Kosar would go on to throw for a school-record 477 yards in that game would not give you the insight to know how it would actually unfold.

The last play of the game will tell the story that perhaps will haunt you in your decision. It is one of the most memorable and storied endings in all of sports:

Do you regret your decision? More importantly, should you regret your decision?

I would argue no. Certainly lifelong Boston College fans would not understand this. I would not expect them to. Remember that in this unrealistic hypothetical, you do not have a history with either program. You are simply choosing a team to root for in this game and for the rest of your life going forward.

Let’s zoom out to see how your decision will fair over the coming four decades.

Miami will go on to win another four national championships. Boston College will never get close to one. Miami will win over 71% of its future football games which ranks in the top 10 for the next 40 years. Boston College will win only about 52% of their games over that 40-year span ranking outside of the top 50.

In the long run, your father was very correct. Even though you may spend the next 40 years fighting the demon that is that first bitter loss, you will enjoy college football greatness many, many times over. For all intent and purposes, Miami is in a completely different league than Boston College to this day.

Let this serve as a parable for life in general and marriage, employment, and investment decisions among others specifically. When facing decisions that are marathon in nature, choose the path with a greater long-term expected outcome. Do the hard work digging deeper discovering what really matters and what are the true differentiators giving you a reason to believe in one versus the other. And don't let momentary episodes of missing out dissuade your judgment.

The Hail Flutie was a spectacular moment. Yet in this comparison, the Miami hurricanes are spectacular choice.