Fixing College Football
It's just a little broke.
As you may suspect from my prior writings and recordings, I don’t think football is very broken at all. In fact I think things are in many ways better today than in the past. I also feel we are on an albeit bumpy, rough road to stable improvement. Think of this post as a short cut to the ultimate destination.
The recently proposed legislation from Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) attempts much the same as what I’m aiming for below. The difference is this is my hobby. I’m not sure what business they have getting involved. It seems like Congress would have better things to do with its time . . .
Sadly, we live in a world where the political gain from such endeavors plus the regulatory corner we’ve put ourselves in means there is incentive and to a degree need for action from them.
Regardless, they among others seem to be getting a bunch of it wrong from my perspective. And they don’t cover all the ground. This is still a partial list, but it is much closer to comprehensive than you’ll find elsewhere.
League structure:
Hard five-year eligibility rule from first participation in any sport at the collegiate level including practice. No exceptions in any circumstances unless declared for all participants in the sport (e.g., Covid) by the NCAA. Also, no eligibility for any player who has earned money in the sport of football with the exception of specific prize money for non-contract players1 (thus defining having played professionally).
Coaches cannot voluntarily leave their team for another coaching job or be discharged without cause within season (August - January).
Transfer rules (portal): a transfer is allowed once per academic year (July 1 through June 30 the following year) per player and only during the transfer period (i.e., portal window). For members of a football team, the transfer period is the month of February. High school signees cannot participate in a transfer portal until having been with a team in season. The transfer period for players not yet declared as playing football (member of a football team) is outside of the season for which the player would play at the new school (i.e., a non-football player cannot transfer as a baseball player in August to play football in the season that begins that August—he would have to sit out a season to the next academic year.) An emergency waiver can be granted to a player if their head coach leaves or is dismissed by that team within the months March through June whereby that player can transfer to any team except a team for which the prior head coach is now an employee. The player would be free to follow the coach but sit out a year at that new school or transfer for immediate eligibility any following year. This creates an emergency window of 30 days from the coach’s official departure. During that time transfers out and in to another program must be completed. Concurrent with that would be an emergency window of 30 days allowing any player on any other team who has not transferred within that academic year to transfer to the school from which the head coach departed.
Allow and standardize contracts between teams and players including clawback provisions and allow pay for performance. Liberalization and experimentation here is critical especially initially to help find the proper equilibria.
Conferences should be allowed to pool their broadcast rights.
Spending cap - There are two problems with a spending cap beyond the concern that it is yet another example of how sports in America (unlike Europe and elsewhere) are modeled on socialistic values that propagate as cronyism. Both of the problems I’m concerned with is getting the level and terms right. First, if you set it too low, this actually helps the larger, more powerful teams, the established incumbents. Why this is goes back to my paper and the general history of firms wanting and inviting regulation from government. They want to limit competitive threats so they want to limit spending by up and comers. Texas Tech is a modern example that a spending cap would work to thwart. The University of Texas wants a spending cap. Texas Tech does not (or should not). Second, if you set it too high or tightly defined, you thwart evolution in the league like the super league point made below. Yes, these two concerns are in a bit of tension. But that just illustrates how delicate the balancing act is. Spending caps are about preserving the league as it is not allowing it to develop into what it could be. I vote for no spending cap until a lot more of the current evolution is settled out.
Whether through the NCAA or independently among themselves, the conferences should enter into contracts between themselves establishing the above limitations and structure.
Season and post season:
Move the Army-Navy game to week 0 as the only game that week.
12-game regular season (conferences individually determine in and out-of-conference composition)
Conference championships allowed at conferences’ discretion
12-team playoff seeded by AP poll ranking—no guaranteed spots for teams (e.g., Notre Dame) or conferences (e.g., Group of 5); therefore, no committee
Playoff first round has a bye-week for top four and home field for next four (just like currently). Second round is home field of top four teams.2 Third and fourth rounds are rotating traditional bowl venues as done currently.
Playoff begins the Friday & Saturday two weeks after the conference championship weekend. Second round is the Friday & Saturday two weeks following. Third round is the Saturday one week following. Fourth round (championship game) is the second Monday following.
Increase officials pay and hold them to higher standards. They should be as dedicated as they are in the NFL with college football officiating as their sole occupation in season.
Super league (long term) - Allow for the evolution of the teams within the top division (i.e., FBS) knowing that a super league is the likely eventual outcome. Embrace the idea of relegation/promotion whereby eligibility in the super league is determined by the 64 teams with the highest average winning percentage over the past 5 years. Ties are broken first by 5-year winning percentage against teams ranking above the tied group and second by head-to-head record among those still tied. If ties remain, 5-year winning percentage against common foes (common in the same year) is used. Teams may elect to sell their position by season in the super league to the highest bidding team outside of the super league. However, once a team exits the super league in this manner, they must earn their way back into it as would any other team (e.g., via 5-year trailing winning percentage ranking). This would add some ability for a team to propel up the ladder by selling their marginal spot, winning in the lower league while banking the earnings from the spot sold, and then be in a better position upon re-entering the super league.
In-game rule changes:
Down by contact - Same as NFL
Defensive pass interference is a spot foul - Same as NFL
If a player forces a stoppage of play, they must sit the remainder of that series or the team must take a time out - Much fewer fake injuries to create a time out.
All or almost all calls are challengeable - My only limit would be you cannot challenge a penalty that was not called.
Overtime - Same as first possession currently and repeated into additional periods if necessary but teams cannot ever kick a PAT or FG to tie a game.
Onside kick - Choice of attempt or take possession 4th-15 from your own 10.
Losing possession out of bounds through your own end zone is not loss of possession—keep the ball at the point where control was lost. Why should a fumble at the 1-yardline where the ball goes out of bounds there be so drastically different (worse) when instead the ball bounces forward and then out of bounds through the endzone?
Use sensors to determine critical calls (e.g., touchdown, field goals, line to gain made (i.e., first downs), player down before fumble, ball hitting the ground before catch/interception, etc.). Sure, make these are challengeable or have booth officials at the ready to intervene like how review works today. Officials on the field can elect to use the sensor results at their discretion. Just allow this technology upgrade to augment human officiating not replace human officiating.
Strategy (things I think teams should do in order to win more):
ALWAYS onside kick - Click the link for more on this strategy. This is irrespective of the proposed rule change above.
Go for it on fourth down A LOT more - This is well established in modern analytics yet not well embraced in practice. Get over your biases and don’t let risk-averse coaches (and fans) undermine the better strategy!
Have a running back or speedster receiver be the punter - an alternative or variant of the prior idea, this allows teams to keep a defense honest while opening up fake-punt options. With a little practice, these athletic players can deliver as much punting as the average punter yields—especially true if the receiving team cannot fully prepare for a return due to the risk of a fake.
Downs first through third - Knowing that fourth down has more opportunity for continuing the drive due to the above two items, play calls on the first three downs should be adjusted accordingly. For some offenses/situations this would mean more conservative calls have higher expected values. In other cases more risk can be run.
Pooch kicking - this play is ugly but somewhat under utilized.
Hook and ladder - this play is beautiful and way under utilized.
Similar to the Cruz-Cantwell bill
I am open to the idea that team can elect to move their home game to another venue which would include a far-away, traditional bowl game spot.