Links - Good Counter Punches

Bobbing and weaving through argument

Let’s start with Maxim Lott giving hope for prediction markets in their legal battles. The good guys are rallying.

This gives a lot of potential avenues for at least some prediction markets surviving in the US.

Considering the Kalshi case, let’s say there’s a 50% chance the courts eventually reverse the CFTC, a 40% chance Trump wins and his appointee overturns the ban, and a 5% chance the CFTC just changes its mind.

Then, the odds it will be banned are: (.5 * .6 * 95/100) = 28.7% chance prediction markets in general will be banned. That’s very close to my previous estimate of 30% — but this estimate is more informed by people close to the issue.

And within that, let’s say there’s another 50% chance that PredictIt is allowed to operate.

And also another 50% chance that Manifold becomes a meaningful real-money market using sweepstakes.

That would suggest something like a (.5 * .5 * .287) = 7% chance that prediction markets will be totally banned in the US.

That’s comforting.

In general, attending Manifest this weekend, I got the sense that there is a lot of entrepreneurial energy going into prediction markets.

Next, Arnold Kling pushes back against sloppy thinking on the part of Ted Gioia, someone I otherwise respect for his point of view.

The ultimate test of whether there has been progress is to ask the question of whether you would be willing to live in some earlier time. If you go back 50 years in terms of health care, you can certainly save a lot of money. But you probably would not make that choice.

...

It seems to always be tempting to take the benefits of something for granted and instead to denounce it for its faults. The market has many flaws, but if you think you know better how to run the economy, you will find that you have taken its benefits for granted. Government has many flaws, but if you look at Haiti, you will find that you have taken the benefits of government for granted. And contemporary technology has many flaws, but if you think that there has not been progress, chances are that you have taken the benefits for granted.

Next, Maxwell Tabarrok strongly attacks student debt cancellation from a number of perspectives. I liked this statement:

Student debt cancellation is a winning lottery ticket for the least deserving group of people in all of human history: American college graduates who aren't productive enough to pay off their own debt.

Next, Roger Pielke, Jr. has data and arguments in support of solar as a truly scalable and workable energy source.

The Iron Law of climate policy means that it is difficult to motivate an energy transition by intentionally making types of energy appreciably more expensive. But is also means that when clean energy becomes cheaper, it readily gobbles up market share, eventually displacing dirtier and more expensive energy.

The figure below shows the plummeting price of solar modules over the past half century.

Source: Our World in Data

The low costs of solar energy, which are positioned to drop even further, has led some in the U.S. to question — quite fairly — why federal subsidies for wind energy are necessary today and far into the future. With or without U.S. subsidies, solar costs should be expected to continue to drop, motivating further deployment, which will lead to greater reductions in costs — a virtuous cycle.

Last, perspectives like this are why I love Bryan Caplan. Message: Be careful how much generic news you consume. It makes you dumber.

As he breaks down the journalistic hyperbole and nonsense, he delivers this zinger:

This is a strong “tell” that the experts don’t believe their own doom-saying. When mass human death actually looms, who frets about lizards or geckos?