Links - Redux

At the risk of some repetition . . .

The three links I share today all are under the theme of topics I’ve recently posted about. Whether this is a thoughtful way to return to these items or simply a hackneyed excuse to put them in front of you is for you to decide.

First is Romina Boccia discussing what will not fix Social Security—economic growth. Since I already did fix it, I found this a refreshing bit of indirect support for my cure. Seriously, she brings a strong and important analysis to this issue as always. Definitely worth quoting at length; although, there is more in the whole piece.

A key driver of these deficits is Social Security’s demographic crisis. Since the program was created in 1935, life expectancy at birth has increased by nearly 16 years. Over the same period, Social Security’s full retirement age has increased by just 2 years, failing to reflect increases in longevity. Meanwhile, birth rates have declined. Because Social Security depends on today’s workers to fund current retirees, these twin demographic trends mean that fewer taxpayers are supporting more beneficiaries, straining the program’s finances.

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Hoping that economic growth will solve Social Security’s financial woes, as some politicians have suggested, is a pipe dream. Because Social Security benefits are indexed to wages, higher economic growth brings both higher revenues and higher benefits, leaving the long-term fiscal problem unresolved. In the best case, faster economic growth would only push back the trust fund insolvency date by a few years at most.

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A key principle of this reform effort should be to more closely align program revenues with benefits on an annual basis, not push back insolvency by a few decades on paper, as Congress did in 1983, while using Social Security’s surplus revenues to fund other government expansions. Promising options include:

Gradually raising the retirement age and permanently indexing the retirement age to account for increases in life expectancy;

Indexing initial benefits to prices rather than wages, protecting beneficiaries against inflation while reducing long-term cost growth;

Improving the accuracy of cost-of-living adjustments by using a more accurate inflation index (the C-CPI-U);

Reducing benefits for the highest-income retirees, entailing lower economic costs in comparison to an across-the-board payroll tax rate increase or lifting the payroll tax cap;

Shifting from an earnings-related benefit to a flat benefit, relying on a more predictable, transparent, and cost-effective method to prevent old-age poverty.

Second is Clark Neily giving credit where credit is due—to President Trump for pardoning Ross Ulbricht. This is a great summation of the arguments behind Free Ross. I am very glad that President Trump did this, and I am almost equally surprised he did so—making good on his campaign promise.

Start with the conduct for which Ulbricht was convicted: abetting the distribution of narcotics, conspiracy to aid and abet computer hacking, conspiracy to traffic in fake IDs, conspiracy to launder money and engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise. Those charges certainly sound serious, even sinister, but they all arose out of his creation of an online marketplace where willing sellers and buyers could anonymously exchange payment for products, including illegal ones.

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But wait, say Ulbricht’s vociferous critics — he didn’t just create Amazon Prime for drugs; he engaged in other, more culpable behavior, including soliciting murder for hire. As it happens, the government did accuse Ulbricht of paying to have several people killed, including some he suspected of embezzling money from him. But prosecutors chose not to include any of those charges in the case that went trial, so the jury never heard the government’s evidence or saw it tested in open court. Instead, the trial judge determined by a mere preponderance of the evidence that Ulbricht had in fact solicited murder for hire and factored that into her rubble-bouncing sentence of two life terms, plus 40 years in prison. So much for the concept of innocent until proven guilty according to constitutionally established procedures.

Moreover, there is ample reason to be suspicious both of the prosecution’s tactics and the integrity of its investigation, given that at least two federal agents stole hundreds of thousands of dollars in bitcoin from Ulbricht while working undercover to help take him down. Those agents, Carl Force of the Drug Enforcement Administration and Shaun Bridges of the Secret Service, betrayed the public trust and sought to profit from their official positions. Upon conviction, they received 78 and 71 months, respectively — a tiny fraction of Ulbricht’s sentence and about half the time he actually served before being pardoned.

Third is Dr. Bobby Dubois offering support for my fulfilled 2024 New Year’s Resolution, changing my mind on how dangerous to health seed oils are.

Dubois writes,

Calorie dense processed foods are designed to be irresistible, and their excessive consumption contributes to weight gain and poor health. So, while seed oils are a convenient and cost-effective ingredient, it’s their role in the creation of unhealthy, processed foods that’s likely the real problem.

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Based on the available evidence, I don’t believe that seed oils are the health hazard they’ve been made out to be. Seed oils do not appear to cause inflammation, heart disease, or diabetes. Seed oils are problematic, but that reflects their role in processed foods. If you’re looking to improve your health, the best approach is to minimize ultra-processed foods, focus on whole, nutrient-dense options, and maintain a balanced diet.

Thank you for this trip down Confirmation Bias Boulevard. Hopefully it was truly intellectually supportive of my positions. At the very least it is a break from me getting high on my own supply—outsourcing that to others.