Ok, Boomer, It's On!
We are all about to be drafted into a generational war.
Partial list of issues that will underlie the coming generational warfare between Baby Boomers/older Gen X and the younger cohorts.
Do realize that I am not taking a side in this internecine war. I am arguing that these factors will drive the coming, growing conflicts. Some of it is just increasing frictions, but some is going to be an ugly sociopolitical struggle.
Social Security & Medicare funding as well as benefit expectations
NIMBY policies that drive high housing prices (ownership and rental rates) or make housing more exclusionary
Autonomous vehicle proliferation that may serve to rob older folks of a feeling of self autonomy or that disconnect younger family members from what would be a transportation role in older peoples’ lives that could facilitate deeper engagement
Movement to more social connections and interactions being online such that it accelerates the isolation of the elderly
Fewer grandchildren due to fertility choices and conditions of many kinds (delaying marriage, choosing to have fewer kids, non-heterosexual coupling, etc.) thus weakening ties between these generations—grandchildren bridge gaps and engender warm engagements
My hypothesis rests partially on “this time it’s different”. We’ve always had generational struggles—Archie and Meathead were constantly finding reasons to bicker over 50 years ago. It is just that now these types of tensions are more acute along generational cleavages rather than cultural or political per se.
Social Security and Medicare are obviously generationally volatile. As people near the magic date of age 65, they crossover to being quite defensive of any threat to their so-called entitlement. The further away you are on the young side from that age, the more suspicious you will be about your own ability to collect someday. And thus the more resentful you will become about the large amounts at what are likely to be increasing rates taken from your income.
Home ownership status can become quite entrenched when housing affordability is low. Today it is very low with little hope of improvement given our political and cultural rejection of increases to supply. This then pits those with housing against those seeking housing as the existent homeowners (wrongly) assume development threatens their investment.
The remaining issues all revolve around withering of social connections. These are the kinds of things that creep along slowly but compoundingly. All of a sudden the results become clear long past when the problems were small.
I’m not saying there are obvious solutions, and it is not anyone’s particular duty to change their life to mitigate a social trend. I just think these are areas we should be thinking about and creatively looking for solutions at individual and small community levels.
The segregation of society by age has been a growing problem over the past few decades in my opinion. It parallels other segregations such as pair bonding (i.e., dating and marriage) within the same socioeconomic classes.
My level of concern for this entire prediction is only moderate. I am optimistic we can begin to see warning signs and find new ways to militate the most stark examples. The solvency of Social Security and Medicare will get addressed one way or another. Perhaps that solution will end the generational divide there rather than inflame it.
Housing will likely get solved too to a large extent. As with the entitlement programs, I hope this comes through well executed good plans rather than crisis.
The softer issues will require more nuance and good-hearted work within communities and families. What would help would be a shifting in social norms to greatly celebrate family and friend connectedness across age gaps. That will require some lifestyle and value adjustments, and the current world isn’t too obliging.
