Partial List of Jobs AI Threatens Not Now But Soon Enough

Imagining an AI convoy

Here is a follow-up to yesterday's post on jobs threatened by AI.

As before, this doesn't mean I'm predicting these jobs will go away. I just think the jobs will be highly threatened in the sense of fewer opportunities, especially for those with below mastery skill. These fields will be shrinking. Average is still so very over!

As usual, in no particular order:

• Financial advisor

• Arbitrating trader

• Credit analyst

• Stock picker and portfolio manager

• Rideshare and taxi driver

• Long-haul truck driver

• Pilot (ship, train, and yes air)

• Lawyer

• Surgeon

• Novelist

• Movie and television production (screenwriter, actor, director, visual effects creator, soundtrack artist, etc.)

As with the prior list, I will offer some rough specifications:

• I give a 1% chance any two or more of these sees statistically discernible changes within the next 10 months (rest of 2025).

• I give a 15% chance for any two or more by the end of 2026.

• I give a 50% chance by the end of 2027.

• I give a +99% chance by the end of 2030.

So all of the difference in my estimation between the near-term threat and the not-near-but-soon threat is in the next few years. By 2030 the effects will be evident in both cases.

Note that I am not saying all of these will happen, I am saying at least two. Now, if pressed, I would give a larger and larger number of these that had seen the effects. That should stand to reason.

The follow-up post to these that will not be done is Partial List of Jobs to be Augmented or Created by AI (near term or longer). The reason I won’t is because that would be a true fool’s errand. These attempts are guess work enough. Trying to imagine what comes next is terrifically difficult. That’s why we need robust free markets and entrepreneurial spirit.

Just know that, like always, there will be job creation that emerges out of all this destruction. This process is all feature no bug. The feature isn’t always and everywhere pleasant, but it can’t be. Trying to make it so kills the golden goose.