Partial List of Jobs Threatened by AI in the Near Term

A prediction without specification (sorry)

This doesn't mean I'm predicting these jobs will go away. I just think the jobs will be highly threatened in the sense of fewer opportunities, especially for those with below mastery skill. These fields will be shrinking. Average is over!

As usual, in no particular order:

• Librarian

• Weatherman

• Travel agents

• Sports referee (and referees for referee appeals)

• Research assistant

• Graphical artist

• Architect

• Engineer

• Teacher and especially tutor

• Interior designer

• Publicist and PR person

• Anyone who builds briefings for executives

• Media and data curators

• Editor

• Copywriter

• Anyone who processes transactions

• Accountant

• Anyone in medical diagnosis

• Paralegal

• Therapist

The threat to the last four are limited by monopoly privilege (a.k.a., professional licensure). But that can only get you so far.

Okay, here is a little specification to make this more than just spitballing. The typical S-curve applies here, of course, but regardless of how much acceleration is possible, we have to assume it is compressed somewhat. Hence, the prediction of “near term” has meaning.

Realize that the first step in any process of job threat is reduced hiring opportunities first for new entrants, followed by interfirm job changes, and finally for internal promotion. It is only in a recessionary environment that layoffs will occur. And they are layoffs not de facto furloughs as those jobs aren’t coming back.

My specifications?

• I give a 5% chance any two or more of these sees statistically discernible changes within the next 10 months (rest of 2025).

• I give a 20% chance for any two or more by the end of 2026.

• I give a 60% chance by the end of 2027.

• I give a +99% chance by the end of 2030.

Tomorrow I’ll have a post on jobs AI threatens not immediately but soon after.