Surprising Stats (Great News Edition)
Did you know . . . ?
Here is some good stuff for this cold Friday.
I.
I think it is hard to fully comprehend just how remarkable this first one is from Roger Pielke, Jr.
Globally, 2025 has had one of the lowest annual death rates from disasters associated with extreme weather events in recorded history.
...
If [estimates] prove accurate, that would make 2025 among the lowest in total deaths from extreme weather events. Ever!
...
To put the death rate into perspective, consider that:
in 1960 it was >320 per 1,000,000;
in 1970, >80;
in 1980, ~3;
in 1990, ~1.3;
Since 2000, six years have occurred with <1.0 deaths per 1,000,000 people, all since 2014. From 1970 to 2025 the death rate dropped by two orders of magnitude. This is an incredible story of human ingenuity and progress.
The long-term implications of climate change are complex. I think it has been both a scientific as well as politically strategic error on the part of environmentalists and others concerned with climate change to make extreme weather their marketing tool. Not only do extreme weather predictions not hold up. The fact that man can adapt to them when they do happen makes dismissing the climate change issue too easy.
(Re-read that last paragraph until you realize what I’m saying.)
II.
Speaking of adaptation to a world that is always unintentionally trying to kill us:
In this cohort study including 22.7 million vaccinated individuals and 5.9 million unvaccinated individuals, vaccinated individuals had a 74% lower risk of death from severe COVID-19 and no increased risk of all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of 45 months.
That is from a new study published in JAMA.
Unfortunately for some it is still a surprise (held in disbelief) that the COVID mRNA vaccines worked—in the strongest sense of the word. Regardless, this is great news. The breakthroughs in vaccines from this technology will yield benefits of great magnitude for decades.
III.
I knew long-distance calls were expensive in the past. I remember in the 1990s purchasing phone cards at a discount to defray some of this cost. I was still stunned to read this from Adam Omary at Human Progress:
By 1950, the luxuries of traveling between coasts in six hours and communicating across coasts in real time became possible. But these new services were still extraordinarily expensive. Transcontinental flights, both then and now, cost around $300; however, adjusted for inflation, a $300 flight in 1950 corresponds to well over $3,000 in today’s dollars. Likewise, while modern phone plans offer unlimited texts and calls for the equivalent of a few hours of the average minimum wage per month, transcontinental phone calls in the 1950s cost over $2.00 per minute, or over $27 per minute in today’s dollars.
Today that call is essentially free at the margin. The magnitude of the change goes well beyond the nominal cost difference. It means our business world has expanded from small, local networks to global in virtually every domain. We can keep up with loved ones (and others!) instantly and constantly—to be sure there is a downside to this, but the upside vastly outweighs it.