Degrees of Losing - January 2024 Edition
We can only win if they both lose.
Now that Republican challengers are dropping (out) like flies and no serious challenge to Biden appears to be emerging1, let’s do a quick pros (if you will) and cons for various election outcomes. This is all as it sits currently—subject to revision, of course—focusing on realistic outcomes (p>.05).
The best (least bad) realistic2 outcome is probably a Democrat in the White House and a Republican-controlled Congress
Next is a Republican president and Democrat-controlled Congress
Next is full Republican control—hoping hard for a resurgent Congress in this scenario and not just in the minority
Last is full Democratic control—hoping somewhat for a continuation of Congressional apathy in this scenario
Biden Pros:
Not Trump
A greater likelihood that Republicans attempt self reform
With a Republican Congress, an impotent presidency; with a focused Republican minority, a decent resistance
Perhaps a chance at real reform rather than lip service in immigration policy and trade policy (yes, this is asking a lot of a perennial protectionist)
A better chance than with Trump at entitlement reform—it might take someone from the party of Roosevelt
Biden Cons:
Biden (spending, regulation, left-wing industrial policy, adjacent to the radical left)
Kamala Harris one heartbeat away
Court appointees maybe—possibly not as bad as suspected
Trump Pros:
Not Biden
A greater likelihood that Democrats reassert Congressional oversight and power
Regardless of Congress, possibly a rather impotent presidency full of pomp, performativity, and pretentiousness
Court appointees maybe—they might easily not be as good in Trump 2.0
Perhaps a good chance at improvements in tax policy and education policy (not so much a national issue, but the tone is set here)
A better chance than with Biden at drug war reform—it might take someone from the party of Nixon
Trump Cons:
Trump (immigration, trade, right-wing industrial policy, adjacent to the radical right)
The likely entire Trump surrounding cast from VP all the way down
A Trump vengeance tour would be dangerous
I left off age because it is a con for both of them.
I left off a lack of mandate because it is a pro for both of them.
As it stands now, Biden narrowly offers the better3 (less bad) package. So when you’re not wasting your time voting this November, be glad that you aren’t encouraging either side of this madness.
I continue to think there is a very meaningful chance that Gavin Newsome finds his way to the top of the Democratic ticket in 2024. Just my prediction. Not so much a hope aside from how that might be nominally better.
Where is Justin Amash?
Seriously, where is Justin Amash?!?